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<div id="printheader"><h1 class="p_Heading1"><span class="f_Heading1">Scenario Simulation</span></h1>
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<p style="text-align: justify; line-height: 1.15;"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: calibri;">Originally abacus aims to analyze the opportunity costs of changing land use systems per unit emitted carbon from the conversions in the past. It is a retrospective analysis that reflects the actual changes and what would have been the forgone opportunities, in term of financial benefit, if those conversions were avoided. The analysis provides a simple, first approximation of quantitative indication of feasible avoidable emissions were there incentive mechanisms in the past and that given that drivers of land use changes do not change in the future, such that the land use changes in the future are stationary in rates and trends, the level of avoidable emissions in the future resemble those in the past. While this retrospective analysis is useful in itself in providing the entry point to the discussion on the feasibility of compensation‐based mechanism of climate change mitigation actions, the prospective analysis will be providing us with valuable ex‐ante analysis for planning purposes. In particular the analysis can serve as the main tool to assess the trade‐offs between AFOLU emissions and land‐based development agenda to be as basis of negotiation platform among multiple stakeholders to achieve inclusive, integrative and informed low emission development strategy. Abacus facilitates the prospective analysis in two ways:</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify; padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 24px;"><span style="font-size:16px; font-family: 'Arial Unicode MS','Lucida Sans Unicode','Arial';color:#000000;display:inline-block;width:24px;margin-left:-24px">&#8226;</span><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: calibri;">Assuming the process of land use changes are stationary in rates and trends, due to the fixed amount of land and decreasing extent of forests, in absolute terms the conversion and therefore the emissions will slow down. The prospective analysis should therefore take this into account in projecting the emissions in the future based on the changes on the previous time steps and also the avoidable emissions given a particular threshold level of compensation per unit CO</span><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: calibri; vertical-align: sub;">2</span><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: calibri;">‐eq emission.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify; padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px; margin: 0px 0px 8px 24px;"><span style="font-size:16px; font-family: 'Arial Unicode MS','Lucida Sans Unicode','Arial';color:#000000;display:inline-block;width:24px;margin-left:-24px">&#8226;</span><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: calibri;">Diverging factors that affect land use changes, e.g., some policy interventions, new economic drivers, changes in demographic structures, environmental hazards, may lead to non‐stationary process of land use changes. In this case the rate and trends of land use transitions may be altered either uniformly across the landscapes or variably among zones within the landscapes. Some of these factors can be anticipated and combined with plausible policy interventions, some scenarios can be developed and formulated into a land use plan policy which further translated into anticipated extent and location of some particular land use transitions. Simulating these scenario based on the existing landscape enables us to run the prospective analysis on future emissions and avoidable emissions.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify; margin: 0px 0px 8px 0px;"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: calibri;">Some examples of scenarios: halting deforestation within conservation area, establishing oil palm only from shrubs under non‐forest land, avoiding conversion of rubber agroforest to oil palm, stopping conversions on peatland.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: calibri;">To access simulation in file menu </span><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: Wingdings;">&rarr;</span><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: calibri;"> click </span><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: calibri; font-weight: bold;">scenario simulation</span><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: calibri;"> button or expands the tree menu on the structured menu frame (on the left side by default) click </span><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: calibri; font-weight: bold;">+scenario simulation.</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; line-height: 1.15;"><span style="font-size: 16px; font-family: calibri;">Access scenario simulation from main menu or structured menu</span></p>

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